20% in 2020, could well be more as insurance is perfectly set up to be disrupted, actually the value chain is already disrupted and split between reinsurers, carriers, agents, comparison portals, banks, etc,.
Typically, disruption hits a tipping point at which just less than 50% of the incumbent revenue is lost in about a five-year timeframe. Recent disruptions that provide valuable insight include streaming video’s impact on the video rental market. When broadband in the home reached ubiquity and video compression technology matured, low-cost streaming devices were developed and, within four years, the video rental business was completely transformed. The same pattern can be seen in the Internet-direct insurance model for car insurance. At present, 50% of the revenue from the traditional agent-based distribution model has been moved to direct insurance providers.
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